Presale:
International Credit Recovery-Japan III Ltd.
Disseminated
from RatingsDirect
Publication date:
11-Apr-2001
Analysts:
Takenari Yamamoto, Tokyo (81) 3-3593-8656; Tomoyoshi Omuro, Tokyo
(81) 3-3593-8584; Kim S Diamond, New York (1) 212-438-2446; Clayton Hunt,
New York (1) 212-438-2492
?31.5
billion nonperforming loan-backed notes
Preliminary
ratings as of April 12, 2001
|
This presale report
is based on information as of April 12, 2001. The ratings shown
are preliminary. This report does not constitute a recommendation
to buy, hold, or sell securities. Subsequent information may result
in the assignment of final ratings that differ from the preliminary
ratings.
|
Class
|
Preliminary
rating*
|
Preliminary
amount
|
Class A
|
AAA
|
?20.5 billion
|
Class B
|
AA
|
?4.8 billion
|
Class C
|
A
|
?3.9 billion
|
Class D
|
BBB
|
?2.3 billion
|
*The rating of each class of securities
is preliminary and subject to change at any time.
|
Profile
Expected closing date: May 2001
Lead manager: Morgan
Stanley & Co. International Ltd.
Sponsor: Morgan Stanley
Realty Inc.
Special servicer:
Lombard Special Servicing Co. K.K.
Trustee: Chase Manhattan
Bank Ltd.
Cap counterparty:
Morgan Stanley Capital Services Inc.
Legal advisor: Mori
Sogo Law Office
Clifford Chance
Rationale
Standard & Poor's expects to assign ratings to International Credit
Recovery - Japan III Ltd.'s (ICRJ-III) ¥31.5 billion floating-rate
structured notes, classes A-D.
Standard & Poor's
ratings address the full and timely payment of interest and the ultimate
repayment of full principal by the legal final maturity date in 2006.
The preliminary ratings
are based on:
- The quality of
the mortgage and fee assets in the property portfolio that ultimately
secures the rated notes;
- The credit support
provided by the subordinate classes of notes;
The ability of the servicers and asset managers to realize proceeds
from the liquidation of the assets in a timely manner;
- The liquidity provided
by the reserve account; and
The soundness of the legal structure.
Standard & Poor's
analysis of the transaction includes a conservative assessment of the
value of the real estate portfolio that ultimately secures the notes,
the diversity of real estate asset types within the portfolio, a resolved
cash balance of approximately ¥5.27 billion generated from income
from portfolio properties and resolutions of assets as of March 31, 2001,
and an evaluation of the management strategy and operations of Morgan
Stanley Realty Inc.'s (MSRI) subsidiaries, affiliates, and indirectly
held entities (MSRI entities). The analysis also takes into consideration
the experience of the servicers and asset managers, and the strong performance
to date in the resolution of assets from prior portfolios, including the
performance of International Credit Recovery-Japan One Ltd. (ICRJ One)
and International Credit Recovery-Japan II Ltd. (ICRJ-II), both of which
were rated by Standard & Poor's. ICRJ One closed in December 1999,
and was fully redeemed in November 2000.
Strengths.
- The proven experience
of MSRI entities in purchasing and disposing of nonperforming loan (NPL)
portfolios as well as fee assets, and a fee structure that provides
incentives for the participants to achieve faster resolutions at higher
proceeds;
- A liquidating,
fast-pay transaction structure in which excess proceeds remaining after
interest payments on the notes will be used to repay principal sequentially
and distribution to TK investors is withheld until amortization targets
are satisfied;
- Conservative underwriting
on the underlying assets, which were purchased at a steep discount to
original book value;
- MSRI's proven success
in Japan with workout strategies and its strong track record of recovery
to date;
- Stable cash flow
from fee and real estate-owned (REO) assets, which comprise 34.9% of
the total allocated purchase price;
- A diversified portfolio
by property type, with residential properties, which are relatively
more liquid than other property types, accounting for the highest concentration
at 40% of the total allocated purchase price;
- Geographic diversification
in the asset pool, with the heaviest concentration of assets in Tokyo,
the most stable real estate market in Japan;
- The presence of
many smaller assets in the securitized portfolio, which have a very
high recovery potential stemming from existing demand for these types
of assets mainly due to the broad range of prospective buyers;
- Many completed
resolutions, with estimated cash proceeds of about ¥5.27 billion,
or 17% of the initial rated debt;
- The predictability
of the timing and proceeds of resolutions sought through the Japanese
court auction system;
- Stabilization in
some real estate values and increasing financial liquidity in the Japanese
market overall, which supports potential real estate buyers; and
- Cash reserves and
an interest liquidity facility.
Concerns.
- Assets refinanced
from previous securitizations, which could be more difficult to liquidate,
representing 53% of the total allocated purchase price for the portfolio;
- The concentration
of large assets that tend to have less liquidity in the market, with
the 30 largest assets accounting for approximately 41% of the portfolio
value as determined by Standard & Poor's;
- The concentration
of borrowers, with the top five borrowers representing 39% of the allocated
purchase price;
- A heavier concentration
of assets that tend to be more difficult to liquidate, in particular
entertainment-related properties and golf courses, which respectively
account for about 17% and 4% of the total allocated purchase price;
- Unpredictable cash
flow streams stemming from the potential for delays in resolutions,
or the receipt of lower-than-expected sale proceeds;
- A complicated collateral
structure involving various types of security arrangements; and
- A complicated transaction
structure in which multiple entities hold the assets.
Mitigating factors.
- Less uncertainty
over the resolution of refinanced assets as a result of borrower negotiations
and asset marketing already performed to date and underwriting values
that were revised accordingly;
- Extensive flexibility
in determining exit strategies as a result of the low purchase price-to-book
value ratio of the portfolio;
- The speedy resolution
of assets of under ¥50 million, which to date far exceeds the business
plan's projected proceeds and timing;
- Additional stress
to resolution timing for assets with complicated workout strategies;
- Additional discounts
made by Standard & Poor's to the value of assets that are deemed
to lack adequate legal protection for noteholders; and
- Appropriate legal
and structural arrangements to minimize legal risks and issues concerning
lack of perfection.
Transaction
Overview
The ¥31.5 billion rated notes will be issued by ICRJ-III, a special-purpose,
bankruptcy-remote, limited-liability company incorporated in the Cayman
Islands. The notes are primarily secured by a ¥31.5 billion bond issued
by ICRJ Gamma Ltd., also a bankruptcy-remote limited-liability company
established in the Cayman Islands, and by various reserve accounts held
by ICRJ Gamma and ICRJ-III. The bond is secured by cross-collateralized
and cross-defaulted loans made to nine bankruptcy-remote entities RP
Properties Y.K., DP Properties Y.K., KS Properties Y.K., Lanikea Ltd.,
Build Ltd., KGI-A Y.K., KGI-B Y.K., KGI-C Ltd., and KGI-L Ltd. The loans
to the nine MSRI entities are ultimately secured by the pool of nonperforming
mortgage loans, REO assets, and fee assets.
Table
1 Collateral Structure
|
Rated Notes Collateral
|
ICRJ Gamma Bond
Collateral
|
MSRI entities Loan
Collateral
|
ICRJ Gamma Bond
|
Loans and Loan documents
to the MSRI entities
|
Mortgage loan and fee assets
on 1,052 real estate properties throughout Japan
|
ICRJ-III Loan Collection
Account
|
Japan Collection Account
and ICRJ Gamma Collection Account
|
Rights under various asset
sales and purchase contracts
|
Note Reserve Account
|
ICRJ Gamma Transaction Fee
Reserve Account and ICRJ Gamma shares
|
Rights under servicing agreements,
including repayments of servicer advances, interest rate cap agreements,
operating expense accounts, and security deposit accounts.
|
The notes will pay
quarterly interest based on the three-month yen LIBOR plus a spread for
each rated class. The payment of note interest and principal is ultimately
dependent on cash flow from the liquidation of the portfolio of nonperforming
assets and fee assets. To mitigate the risk of shortfalls, a reserve account
will be established at closing to cover approximately nine months of interest
payments on the rated notes, and will be replenished throughout the transaction
using surplus cash in the deal. Interest rate risk is further mitigated
by an interest rate cap agreement. Under the agreement, the LIBOR strike
rate steps up each year, beginning with an initial rate of 2%. Principal
will be paid sequentially, starting with the 'AAA' rated class, using
cash flow from the asset resolutions.
Collateral
Portfolio
information.
The collateral portfolio comprises 307 mortgage loans, 572 fee assets,
and 24 REO assets. Overall, 44.3% of the total allocated purchase price
comprising 103 properties consists of newly acquired assets, 38.3% consists
of assets refinanced from ICRJ One, 14.6% consists of assets refinanced
from a previous securitization of properties purchased from Daikyo Inc.,
and 2.8% consists of the others.
Table
2 Total Securitized Pool by Ownership*
|
Purchasing
SPC
|
Number
of mortgaged properties and fee assets
|
%
of total number of assets
|
Allocated
purchase price (mil. ?)
|
%
of allocated purchase price
|
RP Properties
Y.K.
|
35
|
3
|
663
|
2
|
DP Properties
Y.K.
|
536
|
51
|
4,792
|
15
|
Lanikea Ltd.
|
48
|
5
|
7,961
|
24
|
Build Ltd.
|
54
|
5
|
5,164
|
16
|
KS Properties
Y.K.
|
1
|
0
|
1,410
|
4
|
KGI-A Y.K.
|
22
|
2
|
914
|
3
|
KGI-B Y.K.
|
142
|
13
|
1,202
|
4
|
KGI-C Ltd.
|
55
|
5
|
6,922
|
21
|
KGI-L Ltd.
|
159
|
15
|
3,796
|
12
|
Total
|
1,052
|
100
|
32,825
|
100
|
*As of Nov.
30, 2000.
|
|
|
|
Table
3: Total Portfolio by Allocated Purchase Price*
|
|
Number
of mortgaged properties and fee assets
|
%
of total number of assets
|
Allocated
purchase price (mil. ?)
|
%
of allocated purchase price
|
Mortgage loans
and fee assets excluding DP Properties Y.K. and RP Properties Y.K
|
Below ?5 mil.
|
241
|
50
|
189
|
1
|
?5 mil. - ?50
mil.
|
139
|
29
|
2,483
|
8
|
?50 mil. - ?100
mil.
|
31
|
6
|
2,278
|
7
|
?100 mil. -
?200 mil.
|
29
|
6
|
3,902
|
12
|
?200 mil. -
?500 mil.
|
31
|
6
|
9,318
|
28
|
?0.5 bil.- 1
bil.
|
6
|
1
|
3,936
|
12
|
?1 bil. and
over
|
4
|
1
|
5,264
|
16
|
Total
|
481
|
100
|
27,370
|
83
|
DP Properties
Y.K. and RP Properties Y.K
|
Below ?10 mil.
|
362
|
63
|
2,445
|
7
|
?10 mil. - ?20
mil.
|
185
|
32
|
2,383
|
7
|
?20 mil. - ?30
mil.
|
17
|
3
|
394
|
1
|
?30 mil. - ?40
mil.
|
7
|
1
|
233
|
1
|
Total
|
571
|
100
|
5,455
|
17
|
Portfolio total
|
1,052
|
|
32,825
|
100
|
*As of Nov.
30, 2000.
|
|
|
|
Property type.
The securitized portfolio is well-diversified by property type. Unlike
the two previous ICRJ transactions, which had higher levels of standard
office and retail commercial real estate, this portfolio contains a higher
concentration of multifamily properties, including apartments with weekly
leases, and a higher concentration of entertainment-related properties
and golf courses. In total, residential properties accounted for about
40.1% of the total allocated purchase price as of the portfolio cutoff
date. Compared with other property types, residential properties are more
liquid and benefit from more stable demand in the market. In addition,
the historical performance of MSRI entities provided considerable assurance
that they would be able to sell these assets very quickly and at higher
proceeds.
The presence of residential
properties was offset to some extent by the concentration of entertainment-related
properties and golf courses. Entertainment-related properties, such as
social clubs and karaoke bars, represented 16.5% of the allocated purchase
price as of the cutoff date, with golf courses accounting for 4%. Social
clubs in particular tend to have complicated tenant arrangements and limited
marketability, which can delay or prolong the resolution process. However,
MSRI entities have proven experience in underwriting the risks for this
type of asset, as evidenced by strong performance in generating asset
resolutions ahead of schedule and above expected proceeds. The performance
of golf courses, however, has been less strong. Golf courses often involve
shared liens, ground leases, and complicated employee and membership issues,
which in addition to negotiations with operators, make predicting the
ultimate outcome of the restructuring process very difficult. Nonetheless,
MSRI entities have sufficient experience to survey all of the risks involved
in servicing loans related to this asset type. Moreover, recent transactions
have demonstrated that golf courses are becoming more liquid than was
previously the case. Combined with MSRI entities' conservative underwriting
for those asset types, Standard & Poor's believes that the risks pertaining
to entertainment-related properties and golf courses are adequately assessed
in this transaction.
Table
4 Total Portfolio by Primary Use*
|
|
Number
of mortgaged properties and fee assets
|
%
of total number of assets
|
Allocated
purchase price (mil. ?)
|
%
of allocated purchase price
|
Mortgage loans
and fee assets excluding DP Properties Y.K. and RP Properties Y.K.
|
Office
|
61
|
13
|
4,331
|
13
|
Land
|
|
|
|
|
Development
site
|
60
|
12
|
586
|
2
|
Parking lot
|
13
|
3
|
535
|
2
|
Non residential
|
24
|
5
|
436
|
1
|
Golf course
|
6
|
1
|
1,425
|
4
|
Forest/Rural
|
47
|
10
|
723
|
2
|
Residential
|
|
|
|
|
Multifamily
|
106
|
22
|
7,321
|
22
|
Single family
|
61
|
13
|
531
|
2
|
Hotel
|
21
|
4
|
3,460
|
11
|
Other buildings
|
9
|
2
|
680
|
2
|
Retail
|
40
|
8
|
1,888
|
6
|
Entertainment-related
|
23
|
5
|
5,430
|
17
|
Warehouse/industrial
|
10
|
2
|
23
|
0
|
Total
|
481
|
100
|
27,370
|
83
|
DP Properties
Y.K. and RP Properties Y.K.
|
Family-type
|
310
|
54
|
3,727
|
11
|
Studio-type
|
248
|
43
|
1,584
|
5
|
Other
|
13
|
2
|
144
|
0
|
Total
|
571
|
100
|
5,455
|
17
|
Grand total
|
1,052
|
|
32,825
|
100
|
*As of Nov.
30, 2000.
|
Geographic diversity.
The assets are well-diversified geographically throughout Japan. Although
about 47% of the allocated purchase price consists of assets located in
the Kanto region, including Tokyo and its surrounding areas, 15% is located
in the Kansai region, including Osaka, Kyoto, and surrounding areas, and
the remainder of the portfolio is located throughout Japan. Standard &
Poor's took a positive view of the portfolio's concentration in Tokyo.
The center of business activity in Japan, Tokyo benefits from stability
and liquidity in the real estate and financing markets. Compared with
previous ICRJ transactions, however, this transaction contains a higher
concentration of properties located outside Kanto and Kansai, where there
is less liquidity in real estate markets. This risk was incorporated to
some extent into MSRI entities' conservative underwriting for those assets,
and is reflected in the generally lower purchase price paid for such assets.
Table
5 Total Portfolio by Geographic Location
|
Location
|
Number
of mortgaged properties and fee assets
|
%
of total number of assets
|
Allocated
purchase price (mil. ?)
|
%
of allocated purchase price
|
Tokyo
|
183
|
17
|
7,993
|
24
|
Kanto (excluding Tokyo)
|
228
|
22
|
7,269
|
22
|
Osaka
|
58
|
6
|
2,598
|
8
|
Kansai (excluding Osaka)
|
167
|
16
|
2,326
|
7
|
Kyushu
|
120
|
11
|
3,188
|
10
|
Tohoku
|
93
|
9
|
3,238
|
10
|
Hokkaido
|
40
|
4
|
1,657
|
5
|
Chubu
|
54
|
5
|
3,182
|
10
|
Others
|
107
|
10
|
1.373
|
4
|
Total
|
1,052
|
100
|
32,825
|
100
|
*As of Nov. 30, 2000.
|
Refinanced assets.
Asset portfolios refinanced from previous MSRI-related securitizations
comprise 52.9% of the total allocated purchase price in this transaction.
The refinanced asset portfolios carry a unique risk profile, owing to
the heightened possibility of adverse selection. This is because the most
marketable assets were liquidated in earlier securitizations, resulting
in a higher concentration of less-liquid assets in the remaining portfolio
included in this transaction.
MSRI entities periodically
update their projected resolution values, thus decreasing the possibility
that the timing or proceeds of refinanced asset resolutions will fail
to meet expectations. Nonetheless, Standard & Poor's took additional
steps in assessing the risks associated with the refinanced portion of
the securitized pool. For mortgage loans and fee assets, excluding the
assets purchased by RP Properties and DP Properties, Standard & Poor's
not only re-underwrote all of the refinanced 10 assets in the top 30,
but also performed individual asset underwriting for additional samples
of larger refinanced assets in the remaining pool. As a result, Standard
& Poor's found that the updated resolution values underwritten by
MSRI entities are even more precise than those of newly acquired assets,
primarily because refinanced assets, with an average servicing history
of more than 1.5 years, tend to be further along in the resolution process.
RP Properties and
DP Properties.
The fee assets owned by RP Properties and DP Properties, which comprise
16.6% of the total allocated purchase price, are almost all directly owned
multifamily and single-room residential condominium units refinanced from
previous securitizations. Residential properties of this type are generally
highly liquid, and require the least amount of time to resolve since RP
Properties and DP Properties have direct control over the assets. As a
result, refinanced portfolios containing this type of residential asset
carry greater risk of adverse selection, and thus might not perform as
well as similar assets liquidated through previous securitizations. However,
because the properties are homogeneous, and because they are concentrated
in buildings for which recent sales prices for similar units are available,
Standard & Poor's was able to assess the realistic resolution values
for these assets.
Credit Evaluation
Historical
performance.
Standard & Poor's credit analysis of this transaction is largely based
on the strong experience and historical performance of MSRI entities in
managing liquidating transactions backed by nonperforming loans and fee
assets in Japan. Overall MSRI and its related entities together are among
the largest investors in Japanese nonperforming loans, having purchased
about 39 pools for an aggregate face value of about ¥1.8 trillion
through their various single-purpose companies. Standard & Poor's
assessment of the track record of MSRI entities in the resolution of nonperforming
loan portfolios in Japan is based on detailed data, including data from
portfolios unrelated to the first two ICRJ transactions. Of the 1,051
mortgage loan assets related to the two previous ICRJ deals, 396 assets,
or 38%, have been resolved. On average, the resolution prices for these
396 assets were 131% over MSRI entities' underwritten value, and the resolution
timing was on average 12 months ahead of the scheduled plan. Standard
& Poor's received detailed information on the asset resolutions, and
identified trends in performance based on property type, asset size, and
resolution procedures.
This strong performance
can largely be credited to the sound due diligence, underwriting, and
collateral liquidation strategies of MSRI entities. When purchasing real
estate-related loans, mortgages, or fee assets, the MSRI entities conducted
in-depth due diligence, which included site visits and consultation with
real estate professionals. The asset valuation derived from the MSRI entities'
due diligence was then discounted to net out other expenses, including
court and other legal fees, brokerage fees, and other costs related to
the sale of each asset. The remaining projected proceeds, or underwriting
value, are then further discounted by factoring in the time needed to
realize proceeds from the resolution of the asset. The expected timeframe
for foreclosure sales is generally two to three years, while the timeframe
for discounted payoffs is determined on a case-by-case basis.
In addition to the
basic discount of projected proceeds, further discounts are used to account
for deflation of Japanese real estate value, as well as general auction
or borrower negotiation costs. Furthermore, risks unique to Japanese real
estate, such as complicated liens and ownership, organized crime, favorable
tenancy laws, security deposit liabilities, and senior liens, are appropriately
considered and discounted from the valuation. These plans factor all elements
of Japanese judicial and voluntary workout practices and risks unique
to Japanese real estate. The plans reflect the MSRI entities' underwritten
cash flow based on the expected timing and proceeds from the ultimate
sale of the assets. Furthermore, all management costs, taxes, sales costs,
and any other transaction-related expenses are netted out from the net
cash flow and value projections.
In this transaction,
Lombard Special Servicing Co. KK, a licensed entity under Japan's Servicer
Law, acts as the special servicer and is advised by Kearny Global Investors
K.K., an MSRI subsidiary. These entities and their employees, including
their Japanese counsel, have formulated detailed business plans for the
resolution of all assets in this transaction. In formulating a plan for
each loan, numerous types of workout or exit strategies are available
to the asset managers. The strategies range from foreclosure and sale,
to negotiation of a discounted payout with the defaulted borrower. While
liquidation plans vary based on each asset's particular circumstances,
foreclosure action is generally pursued immediately to gain leverage over
the obligor. Standard & Poor's is satisfied that the servicing entities
comply with applicable laws, including the use of Japanese counsel under
the Practicing Attorney's Law. Asset managers are motivated by compensation
structures that reward rapid dispositions at prices that equal or exceed
predetermined target prices. Standard & Poor's has reviewed and assessed
these compensation structures, and is satisfied that they provide a high
level of motivation for the asset managers in line with the interests
of noteholders.
Due diligence.
As part of its due diligence, Standard & Poor's reviewed and analyzed
the resolution strategies, including those for the largest assets and
representative samples of smaller assets. In addition, Standard &
Poor's due diligence included visits to various properties in several
parts of Japan, during which 18 of the largest 30 assets and a sample
of 10 additional large assets were seen. As part of these visits, Standard
& Poor's conducted on-site interviews with the individual asset managers
responsible for formulating the business plans. The interviews were designed
to examine the asset managers' understanding of the specific asset and
the submarket in which it was located, to test the assumptions in the
exit strategy for that asset, and assess whether the forecast timeframe
for resolution of the asset was reasonable.
Acquisition
cost.
As is normally the case in NPL-backed transactions, all of the underlying
assets in ICRJ-III were purchased in bulk and at deep discount to book
value. The overall acquisition cost of the securitized portfolio is 77%
of MSRI entities' underwriting value. However, the acquisition cost for
newly acquired assets is higher, at 87% of MSRI entities' underwritten
value, reflecting increased competition in the market and the generally
higher quality of assets.
Portfolio analysis
and debt sizing.
Mortgage loans
and fee assets excluding RP Properties and DP Properties.
Standard & Poor's assessed the MSRI entities' underwriting methodology
by reviewing all of the largest loans or properties and sampling some
of the smaller ones. The analytical process consisted of the following:
- Site visits to
25 properties, representing 37% of the total allocated purchase price;
- Revaluing the assets;
- Examination of
individual resolution plans;
- In-depth interviews
with on-site asset managers regarding the status of resolution strategies;
- Analysis of property-level
historical performance data and any other property-related information
where applicable; and
- Independent interviews
with various real estate professionals.
Because 30 assets
make up about 49% of the portfolio's allocated purchase price the portfolio
is skewed toward larger assets. However, there is a large number of small
assets in this transaction. Excluding RP Properties and DP Properties,
241 of the 481 properties, or 50%, have purchase prices of ¥5 million
or less, and 380 properties, or 79% have purchase prices of ¥50 million
or less. As a result, Standard & Poor's randomly selected a set of
smaller assets for analysis, which in some cases included site visits.
Smaller assets tend to have higher recovery potential and faster recovery
timing as evidenced by historical performance.
Top 30 assets.
Standard & Poor's re-underwrote the resolution value and timing for
the 30 largest assets in the portfolio, and arrived at a base-case value
for the assets equal to 95.3% of the MSRI entities' underwritten value.
Below is a summary of the top assets within this group.
Resort hotel.
- A Japanese-style
hotel located at the city center of a resort destination south of Tokyo,
which comprises 4% of Standard & Poor's underwritten portfolio value.
- The hotel operation
has been improved to some extent as a result of a workout with the borrower.
- Refinanced from
ICRJ One, the loans have been serviced long enough to be resolved in
the near term.
Weekly-leased apartments.
- Six apartments
that comprise 9% of Standard & Poor's total portfolio value
- Refinanced from
ICRJ One, the assets are already fee-owned as REO, and produce a significant
amount of cash flow income, over ¥400 million per year, which ultimately
will be used to pay down the rated notes.
- As an owner of
the assets, MSRI entities have recently invested in refurbishment costs.
Office building
in Tokyo.
- An eight-story
class B office building built in 1989 that comprises about 4% of Standard
& Poor's underwritten portfolio value. This is the largest fee owned
single asset in the portfolio.
- Conveniently located,
with a current occupancy rate of 100%.
- Standard &
Poor's has made no adjustment to the value given the conservative underwriting
by MSRI entities.
Pachinko parlor
in Kanagawa Prefecture.
- The largest asset
among the newly acquired mortgage loans, accounting for about 3% of
Standard & Poor's underwritten portfolio value.
- This asset consists
of a three-story amusement facilityincluding pachinko parlor,
video game center, bowling alley, and food courta parking lot,
and an employee dormitory across the street from the amusement center.
- The properties
are located along a major roadway and near a highway exit.
- Recently resolved
at higher-than-estimated resolution value.
Social buildings
outside Kanto and Kansai.
- Four social buildings
representing about 6% of Standard & Poor's underwritten portfolio
value.
- Given the complex
tenant agreements, Standard & Poor's stressed the resolution timing
for these properties from MSRI entities' original underwritten value.
For one asset located in Hokkaido Prefecture, Standard
& Poor's allowed for a more stressful vacancy ratio than is underwritten.
Smaller asset analysis.
For smaller assets in the pool and those assets that were not individually
underwritten, Standard & Poor's adjusted the MSRI entities' underwriting
value and timing, taking into account characteristics of the securitized
portfolio, general market trends, and the track record of the MSRI entities.
Standard & Poor's divided the remaining portfolio into the following
three groups:
- Assets with an
allocated purchase price between ¥100 million and ¥274 million,
which comprise 27% of the portfolio's allocated purchase price;
- Assets with an
allocated purchase price between ¥50 million and ¥100 million,
which comprise 8% of the portfolio's allocated purchase price; and
- Assets with an
allocated purchase price below ¥50 million, which comprise 10% of
the portfolio's allocated purchase price.
¥100 million-¥274
million assets.
An analysis of MSRI entities' performance in Japan shows an average recovery
of 119% of original underwritten value from resolutions involving assets
of this type, and completion of the resolutions nine months ahead of schedule.
However, a comparison of average resolution proceeds and timing for assets
of this type in ICRJ-One (137% of underwritten value, nine months ahead
of schedule) and ICRJ-II (104% of underwritten value, nine months ahead
of schedule), reveals that performance has declined. The performance data
included a variety of asset types, among which residential, office, and
retail properties were the major components. However, because these results
were based on an insufficient sample size and because assets that exceed
¥100 million generally have limited liquidity compared with lower
value assets, Standard & Poor's re-underwrote a sample of 10 assets
in this category, and arrived at a value that was 95% of MSRI entities'
underwritten value. No adjustments were made for resolution timing.
¥50 million-¥100
million assets.
On average, MSRI entities have recovered 105% of original underwritten
value and have completed resolutions for assets of this type about seven
months ahead of schedule. For ICRJ-One, on average these assets were resolved
at 104% of underwritten value, while for ICRJ-II the average resolution
was 106% of underwritten value, with both transactions recording resolution
timing seven months ahead of schedule. Since these results were based
on a statistically significant sample, Standard & Poor's made minor
adjustments to this category. Standard & Poor's underwrote these assets
at 97.5% of MSRI entities' underwritten value and made no adjustments
for resolution timing.
Assets under ¥50
million.
On average, MSRI entities have recovered 167% of original underwritten
value for assets of this type and have completed resolutions approximately
13 months ahead of schedule. These results are consistent with Standard
& Poor's experience across various types of performing as well as
nonperforming transactions, due to the higher liquidity and larger number
of buyers in this price range. In light of these strengths, and the track
record of a sufficient sample of assets, Standard & Poor's made no
adjustments for timing and underwrote these assets at 115% of MSRI entities'
underwritten value.
Sale proceeds and
timing adjustments.
In analyzing the transaction, Standard & Poor's adjusted the expected
timing and proceeds from asset resolutions using base-case scenarios for
the cash flow and value of individual assets, taking into account economic
and real estate market conditions. Starting from this base-case collateral
value, various stresses were implemented consistent with the respective
rating levels.
Standard & Poor's
took a hybrid approach in making adjustments to the proposed underwriting
value and resolution timing of individual properties. For the top 30 assets,
Standard & Poor's re-underwrote the value and resolution timing of
each property. For smaller assets, Standard & Poor's stressed the
MSRI entities' underwriting value and timing, taking into account the
securitized portfolio's characteristics, general market trends, and the
track record of the MSRI entities. Conversely, for assets already resolved
after the cutoff date of Nov. 30, 2000, Standard & Poor's underwritten
value was adjusted to the actual resolution value. Given the strong resolution
results of the portfolio, this generally resulted in an upward adjustment
in portfolio value.
During the review,
Standard & Poor's adjusted downward several asset values that were
deemed to be underwritten aggressively, although the number of these assets
was small. As a result, the net valuation of the portfolio, excluding
RP Properties and DP Properties, based on Standard & Poor's analysis
was 1.3% lower than the MSRI value. In assigning ratings to the transaction,
Standard & Poor's used its own valuation of the portfolio.
RP Properties and
DP Properties portfolios.
The properties purchased by RP Properties and DP Properties are almost
all studio or multifamily apartments refinanced from previous transactions.
Moreover, all of the properties are owned as individual condominium units,
as opposed to being purchased as whole buildings. Because of these unique
characteristics, Standard & Poor's analysis of the RP Properties and
DP Properties assets differed from the approach used for the rest of the
securitized pool. By examining these assets' historical data and other
market information, Standard & Poor's found that the performance for
these assets was directly correlated to property type and geographical
location. Based on original underwriting, studio units have performed
worse than multifamily units, and Kansai-based assets have performed worse
than Kanto assets. As a result, Standard & Poor's stressed its underwriting
of RP Properties- and DP Properties-related assets depending on unit type
and location.
Summary of
adjustments and stress levels.
Using the above adjustments, Standard & Poor's determined a base-case
portfolio value of ¥41.63 billion, or 95.4% of the MSRI entities'
underwritten value of ¥43.61 billion.
Starting from this
base-case scenario and collateral value, various stresses were implemented
in line with the respective rating categories. It was assumed that all
properties would suffer a market value decline ranging from 55% for the
'AAA' stress scenario; 40% for 'AA', 30% for 'A', and 25% for 'BBB'. This
transaction relies heavily on the MSRI entities' ability to implement
a resolution strategy within a given timeframe. In light of MSRI's performance
with ICRJ One and ICRJ-II, Standard & Poor's was comfortable with
a 55% market value stress at the 'AAA' level. In addition, assets already
resolved and now collateralized with cash were considered to be consistent
with an 'AAA' scenario, and thus were not stressed at any rating categories.
Standard & Poor's
also performed various stress analyses to sensitize the projected cash
flow to delays in timing of resolutions as well as declines in proceeds.
The results of these tests were used to determine the amount of liquidity
that would be required to ensure timely interest payments on the notes.
Structural and Legal Issues
Chart
1 International Credit Recovery-Japan III Ltd. Transaction Structure
Transaction structure.
ICRJ-III, the issuer of the rated notes, is a single purpose entity incorporated
in the Cayman Islands as a limited-liability company. The articles of
association include a provision that requires ICRJ-III to secure bankruptcy-remote
status through various legal agreements between the company, its common
shareholder, and the trustee under the ICRJ-III indenture.
The ¥31.5 billion
of notes issued by ICRJ-III are secured by a ¥31.5 billion ICRJ Gamma
bond, which is the obligation of ICRJ Gamma as well as funds in the note
reserve account and the collection accounts at closing. The ICRJ Gamma
bond in turn is secured by loans to each of the MSRI entities, various
reserve accounts, and the ordinary shares of ICRJ Gamma. The loans are
an obligation of the MSRI entities and will be secured by the mortgage
loan assets, fee assets, inter-company loan collateral, and the rights
of the MSRI entities under various transaction agreements, operating expense
accounts, and security deposit accounts. The loans will be cross-defaulted
and cross-collateralized.
The ICRJ Gamma collateral
is secured by the assignment of beneficial interests ("joto tanpo")
on the mortgage loan and fee assets of each of the MSRI entities, any
other debtors that may be established, rights under purchase and sales
agreements, the servicing contracts, interest rate cap agreements, and
various deposit and reserve accounts.
Perfection.
The perfection of the security interests in nonperforming loan transactions
is especially difficult to achieve. Notices of assignment must be sent
to the delinquent debtors, but timing of the delivery of the notices may
be disruptive to ongoing discussions on asset resolutions with these parties.
In addition, the assignment of mortgages requires a registration by the
new owner in the land and building registries.
ICRJ Gamma will perfect
its security in the mortgages by assignment of the mortgages loans via
a registration under the Perfection Law ("saiken joto tokurei-ho").
In an event of default, ICRJ Gamma can perfect its assignment in the mortgages
by issuing a notice and the registration certificate to the original delinquent
debtors. In addition, ICRJ Gamma will be provided with a power of attorney
to register its rights in the assets, if it is necessary to enforce its
security rights in a court proceeding. Standard & Poor's believes
that this lack of immediate perfection is mitigated by the bankruptcy
remoteness of the MSRI entities, whose sole business will be limited to
liquidating the assets.
A review of the legal
due diligence provided by the arranger's attorneys identified several
assets where the transfer of mortgages or notification to the original
borrowers may result in an imperfect assignment. However, after detailed
legal review of all the identified loans, Standard & Poor's believes
that the possible negative results stemming from identified legal issues
are limited.
Borrower structure.
ICRJ Gamma is incorporated in the Cayman Islands as a limited-liability
company and is a single-purpose entity. The articles of association include
a provision that requires ICRJ Gamma to secure the approval of the ICRJ
Gamma shareholder prior to taking any significant action (including bankruptcy
filing). The ICRJ Gamma shareholder will enter into an agreement prohibiting
the ICRJ Gamma shareholder from giving such approval without the prior
consent of the trustee under the ICRJ-III indenture.
Bankruptcy-remoteness.
As is typical of structured finance transactions, bankruptcy remoteness
and isolation of the securitized assets from those of the sponsor are
key factors of the analysis. The MSRI entities will operate under Japan's
Commercial Code either as "tokumei-kumiai-shusshi" (TK entity;
a limited partnership type arrangement) based in the Cayman Islands, or
as a "yugen gaisha" established in Japan. All of the MSRI entities
are single-purpose entities. Standard & Poor's saw particular importance
in the MSRI entities achieving bankruptcy-remote status. To do this, the
MSRI entities took steps to achieve bankruptcy remoteness consistent with
Standard & Poor's criteria. These included the issuance of special
shares to independent parties and having the MSRI entities' corporate
articles require 100% shareholder approval to file any bankruptcy proceedings
for Cayman entities, having the portfolio debtor owners execute non-petition
agreements not to file nor permit to be filed insolvency petition for
yugen gaisha entities, and ensuring the bankruptcy-remote nature of Japan
Realty Inc. and DPC Holdings Inc., the owner of these entities.
Cash waterfall.
On the closing date, the cash proceeds will be received from the sale
of the notes, transaction fees will be deducted, and the remainder will
be used by ICRJ-III to fund the initial deposits to the note reserve account
and to pay the purchase price of the ICRJ Gamma Bond.
After closing, all
cash proceeds from the collateral assets will be deposited directly into
the operating expense reserve accounts of the MSRI entities. Because MSRI
entities have high degrees of bankruptcy remoteness, there is limited
commingling risk associated with them. Every month, cash from the MSRI
entities will be swept into ICRJ Gamma's Japan branch account, then immediately
to ICRJ Gamma's collection account.
However, the MSRI
entities are entitled to keep a maximum of six months of estimated expenses
in the operating expense reserve accounts to ensure sufficient cash to
work out the collateral assets. In particular, there will be an immediate
need for cash when the asset manager elects to credit bid on a particular
asset. This poses some concern for Standard & Poor's because if there
is a large amount of cash remaining in the transaction, there is a risk
of delay on the repayment of the rated notes. This concern is partially
mitigated by the transaction having an interest rate cap agreement to
hedge interest rate risk and a liquidity reserve account to meet required
interest payments.
On the same day as
excess cash proceeds are deposited into the Japan collection account,
the administrative agent will transfer the entire credit balance of the
Japan collection account to the ICRJ Gamma collection account.
On the applicable
payment date, the administrative agent will apply all amounts in the ICRJ
Gamma collection account on the calculation date, to meet the debt service
requirement of the loans in accordance with priority payments specified
in the loan agreements, including the payment of distributions to TK investors,
and to make payments on the ICRJ Gamma bond in accordance with priority
of payments specified in the ICRJ Gamma indenture on the instruction of
the trustee.
On the same day as
ICRJ-III receives a payment on the ICRJ Gamma bond, the administration
agent shall transfer the entire amount to the paying agent for application
of all such amounts to the notes in accordance with the priority of payments
specified in the ICRJ Gamma indenture.
Chart
2 International Credit Recovery-Japan III Ltd. Cash Flow Structure
Priority of payments.
ICRJ-III rated
notes.
In the absence of an event of default, the priority of payments for the
ICRJ-III rated notes will be as follows:
- Transaction fees;
- Note reserve account
deficiency;
- Interest on class
A;
- Interest on class
B;
- Interest on class
C;
- Interest on class
D;
- Principal on class
A, until paid in full;
- Principal on class
B, until paid in full;
- Principal on class
C, until paid in full;
- Principal on class
D, until paid in full;
- Any remaining amounts
due under the indenture; and
- ICRJ-III.
Should an event of
default occur, the priority of payments will change to the following:
- Transaction fees;
- Interest on class
A;
- Principal on class
A, until paid in full;
- Interest on class
B;
- Principal on class
B, until paid in full;
- Interest on class
C;
- Principal on class
C, until paid in full;
- Interest on class
D;
- Principal on class
D, until paid in full;
- Any remaining amounts
due under the indenture; and
- ICRJ-III.
ICRJ Gamma bond.
The priority of payments for the ICRJ Gamma bond will be as follows:
- Transaction fees;
- Interest on the
ICRJ Gamma bond;
- Principal on the
ICRJ Gamma bond until the bond is paid in full;
- Any remaining amounts
due under the indenture; and
- ICRJ Gamma.
Loan level.
On the loan level, the payment waterfall will go as follows:
- Transaction fees;
- Any fees and expenses
to a replacement servicer;
- Interest on loans;
- Principal on loans
until the amortization target is met;
- Accrued and unpaid
fees and expenses under the loan documents;
- Additional principal
on loans (MSRI entities' option);
- Distribution to
TK investors;
- Payment of remaining
outstanding principal amount on loans; and
- Repayment of inter-company
loans to the relevant MSRI entities.
Liquidity enhancement.
A note reserve account that will cover nine months of maximum interest
payments on the rated notes and 12 months of estimated transaction fees
under the ICRJ-III indenture has been established and will be funded at
closing. This account will be maintained at the ICRJ-III level and is
available to cover all interest shortfalls on all classes of the notes.
This account is replenished from the payment waterfall to the extent needed.
Interest rate risk.
An interest rate cap agreement will be entered into between the asset-holding
entities and a properly rated counterparty. The strike price on Japanese
yen three-month LIBOR will be stepped up 2%, 3%, 4%, 6%, and 8% each year.
In sensitizing the cash flow, Standard & Poor's assumed this maximum
LIBOR rate plus applicable spreads for interest expense assumptions. Whenever
the cap counterparty becomes ineligible due to a downgrade, the counterparty
must be replaced or guaranteed by an appropriately rated party, or post
sufficient collateral to retain ratings acceptable to Standard & Poor's.
Legal issues.
Final ratings will be assigned after the amount and complete terms of
the notes are finalized, and a full analysis of the transaction, including
a complete legal review, is completed. The assignment of final ratings
will be subject to a satisfactory review of the final pool, cash flow
modeling, and structural and legal issues, including a review of the transaction
documents, and tax and legal opinions. Standard & Poor's has yet to
complete a full legal and tax analysis of the transaction, and all outstanding
structural and legal issues must be addressed prior to the assignment
of final ratings.
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